Biodiversity and Conservation

Linnaean and Wallacean shortfalls (Uncertainties on species taxonomy and distribution, respectively) are major factors hampering efficient conservation planning in the current context of biodiversity erosion. These shortfalls concern even widespread and abundant species in relatively well-studied regions such as the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot which still hosts a large fraction of unrecognised biodiversity, notably in small vertebrates. Species delimitations have long been based on phylogenetic analyses of a small number of standard markers, but accurate lineage identification in this context can be obscured by incomplete lineage sorting, introgression or isolation by distance. Recently, integrative approaches coupling various sets of characters or analyses of contact zones aiming at estimating reproductive isolation (RI) have been advocated instead. Analyses of introgression patterns in contact zone with genomic data represent a powerful way to confirm the existence of independent lineages and estimate the strength of their RI at the same time. The Spiny-footed Lizard Acanthodactylus erythrurus (Schinz, 1833) is widespread in the Iberian Peninsula and the Maghreb and exhibits a large amount of genetic diversity, although the precise number and distribution of its genetic lineages remain poorly understood. We applied a RADseq approach to obtain a genome wide SNPs dataset on a contact zone in central Morocco between the previously described Rif and Middle-Atlas lineages. We show that these two lineages exhibit strong RI across this contact zone, as shown by the limited amount and restricted spatial extant of gene flow. We interpret these results as evidence for species-level divergence of these two lineages. Our study confirms the usefulness of RADseq approaches applied on contact zones for cryptic diversity studies and therefore to resolve Linnaean and Wallacean shortfalls.

Global conservation and research has come to rely on the IUCN species range-maps to direct research, allocate funding and define and design protected areas. However, IUCN species range-maps may be created on the basis of little actual data. Though the IUCN methods may be suitable for well known species, they may be liable unreliable for lesser known species or areas. In such cases, human biases may limit the usefulness of the output maps and potentially misdirect conservation funding and protection. Possible errors in these IUCN maps has global implications for the preservation of biodiversity, as flawed data leads to flawed decisions, which are of critical importance to the protection of the biodiversity of this planet. Ultimately we show that the current IUCN \"expert-assessment based\" range-maps may hinder rather than assist global conservation, as errors ranged from tens to thousands of kilometres (between recorded distributions and IUCN-maps), and for some taxa under 50% of records fell within their mapped-ranges. IUCN maps are being used globally to evaluate global conservation and protection, yet up to 85.4% of IUCN species-range boundaries follow political-boundaries, making using IUCN maps to evaluate the protected-area system and its efficacy impossible. The current availability of data, methods and computer-power has relegated these maps in the wake of more empirically based methods, and better use of available data provides the ability to make better conservation decisions, especially for highly threatened species and regions.

Humanity has maintained cultural connections with our environments for time immemorial. Plants and artisan crafts are a prime example, as craft purpose, skill, design, and species used can vary greatly between communities and the loss of a critical plant species can result in a loss of access to cultural craft practices. To mitigate global biodiversity loss, conservationists are faced with the challenge of assessing species vulnerability to extinction and prioritizing species for conservation funding using information instruments, like the IUCN red list. This process does not necessarily consider a species cultural importance. In this paper we sought to address this gap for plant species used in artisan crafts in Colombia. We aim to answer the following: (1) how represented are endemic species in artisan crafts; (2) how threatened are artisan craft species according to (a) international and (b) national vulnerability status? We used the number of species-associated common names as a proxy for cultural awareness. We found that continentally regional species were far more represented in Colombian artisan crafts than national endemics. We also found a strong positive relationship between number of common names and national vulnerability assessment status, but no statistically significant relationship for international vulnerability status. Based on our results, well-known plants used in Colombian artisan crafts are more likely to be assessed nationally than internationally. While the IUCN is thorough in their recommendations, more can be done to prioritize the inclusion of conservation assessments for species based on their contributions to cultural diversity. Positionality statementWe are 14 scientists and practitioners who are deeply committed to the conservation of nature and culture in a changing world. We are trained in diverse fields including ecology, evolutionary biology, botany, music, anthropology, law, and public health. We all have postgraduate academic education (Masters or PhDs underway) but most of us are early career scholars. Six of us grew up in Colombia and we represent many places including Mexico, the United States, Ireland, Chile, Brazil, Germany, and Viet Nam. None of us self-identify as Indigenous.

The amphibian endemic fauna from Madagascar is currently facing multiple threats, including habitat loss, climate change and invasive species. Many species are listed as threatened by the IUCN, but long-term monitoring is scarce and assessments rarely account for population trends. Using a 13-year amphibian survey in the Strict Nature Reserve of Betampona (eastern Madagascar), we assessed the population trends of 38 species between 2010 and 2022 based on amphibian activity. Despite the high protecction status of the reserve, we found a negative trend for 15 species, a positive trend for 13 species increasing and 13 species with no significant trend detected. We propose to update the status of 15 species towards a threatened category (CR, EN, VU). Contrasting population trends in amphibians from Betampona might modify species composition and ecosystem functions in the future. This study highlights an important underestimation of extinction risks for a large proportion of amphibians from Madagascar, and more generally in the tropics where long-term population trends are poorly documented.

The blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus taurinus) is a keystone species in the savannahs of southern Africa, where it maintains shortgrass plains and serves as an important prey source for large carnivores. Despite being the second largest migratory wildebeest population, the wildebeest of the Greater Liuwa Ecosystem (GLE) of western Zambia have remained largely unstudied, until recently. While studies have increased understanding of recent demography, migration, and population limiting factors, the level of genetic diversity, patterns of gene flow, and long-term demographic history of blue wildebeest in the GLE remains unknown. Most genetic studies of wildebeest have focused on small, heavily-managed populations, rather than large, migratory populations of high conservation significance. We used restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to assess genetic diversity, population structure, and demographic history of blue wildebeest in the GLE. Using SNPs from 1,730 loci genotyped across 75 individuals, we found moderate levels of genetic diversity in GLE blue wildebeest (He = 0.210), no evidence of inbreeding (FIS = 0.033), and an effective population size of about one tenth the estimated population size. No genetic population structure was evident within the GLE. Analyses of the site frequency spectrum found signatures of expansion during the Middle Pleistocene followed by population decline in the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene, a pattern previously observed in other African ungulates. These results will supplement field studies in developing effective conservation plans for wildebeest as they face continued and increasing threats of habitat loss, poaching, and other human impacts across their remaining range.

Despite the high bee species richness found in the Iberian Peninsula, the lack of distributional data often hampers effective conservation. This gap is particularly critical within protected areas such as the Donana Natural Area, where biodiversity is expected to be increasingly vulnerable to environmental pressures. Here, we present the first checklist of the wild bees of Donana. A total of 385 species belonging to 47 genera were recorded, including recently described species and a newly recorded species for continental Europe, Andrena purpurascens. The exceptional diversity of the areas bee fauna accounts for approximately one-third of the known Iberian apifauna. We provide information on habitat and floral use, offering key ecological insights for conservation planning. This knowledge is essential to support habitat management decisions, particularly in the face of intensifying climate change and water scarcity across the protected area. In addition, to evaluate long-term ecological changes, we compared recent field data (2020-2021) with historical surveys conducted at the same site between 1984 and 1985. While a similar number of species were recorded in both periods (49 vs 43 species), only 15 species were shared between the two periods. This large-scale species turnover indicates the dynamic nature of a region undergoing significant environmental shifts. These findings underscore the importance of baseline biodiversity assessments and long-term monitoring for understanding and mitigating pollinator loss in protected ecosystems, which are increasingly shaped by climate instability and anthropogenic pressures.

Quantifying habitat use is important for understanding how animals meet their requirements for survival and provides useful information for conservation planning. Currently, assessments of range-wide habitat use that delimit species distributions are incomplete for many taxa. The harpy eagle (Harpia harpyja) is a raptor of conservation concern, widely distributed across Neotropical lowland forests, that currently faces threats from increasing habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we use a logistic regression modelling framework to identify habitat resource selection and predict habitat suitability based on a new method developed from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Area of Habitat range metric. From the habitat use model, we performed a gap analysis to identify areas of high habitat suitability in regions with limited coverage in the Key Biodiversity Area (KBA) network. Range-wide habitat use indicated that harpy eagles prefer areas of 70-75 % evergreen forest cover, low elevation, and high vegetation heterogeneity. Conversely, harpy eagles avoid areas of >10 % cultivated landcover and mosaic forest, and topographically complex areas. Our habitat use model identified a large continuous area across the pan-Amazonia region, and a habitat corridor from the Choco-Darien ecoregion of Colombia running north along the Caribbean coast of Central America. Little habitat was predicted across the Atlantic Forest biome, which is now severely degraded. The current KBA network covered [~]18 % of medium to high suitability harpy eagle habitat exceeding the target representation (10 %). Four major areas of high suitability habitat lacking coverage in the KBA network were identified in the Choco-Darien ecoregion of Colombia, western Guyana, and north-west Brazil. We recommend these multiple gaps of habitat as new KBAs for strengthening the current KBA network. Modelled area of habitat estimates as described here are a useful tool for large-scale conservation planning and can be readily applied to many taxa.

AimWe aimed to determine the relationships between species association with humans, their levels of habitat specialisation, and the extent to which their geographic ranges have increased or decreased. LocationGreat Britain. Time periodPresent (1981-2020) Major taxa studiedTerrestrial invertebrates (n=1,722 species). MethodsWe determined the habitat associations for each of 1,722 species from 14 taxonomic groups in each of 18 land cover types in Great Britain. We used these values to calculate a human association index (based on whether species occupy human-modified land cover types, such as urban, suburban and coniferous plantation habitats, or occur in relatively unmodified land covers, such as several coastal habitats and marshlands) and habitat specialisation index (whether they are restricted to a few land cover types, or widely distributed across different land cover types) for each species. We then investigated the relationship between human association and habitat specialisation, as well as the relationship between human association and two metrics of range change between 1981-2000 and 2001-2020. ResultsContrary to previous hypotheses, we find no evidence that species associated with human-modified environments are more likely to be habitat generalists. Furthermore, human-associated species were more likely to increase. On average, the geographic distributions of the most human-associated third of species increased by 58% over the study period, whereas the least human associated third of species declined by 7.1%. Main conclusionsHumans have had increasingly large impacts on the worlds ecosystems, generating an intensity gradient of human-modification, including novel (anthropogenic) environments. Our findings show that new environments have provided opportunities for species to colonise, generating faunas which include species that have become human-associated specialists. The ongoing expansions of species in ecosystems with relatively high levels of human modification are key components of the future of biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

To achieve conservation success, we need to support the recovery of threatened species. Yet, <5% of plant species listed as threatened on the IUCN Red List have Species Conservation Action Plans (CAPs). If we are to move from a Red List to a Green List for threatened plant species, CAPs need to be devised and implemented. Guinea is one of the most botanically diverse countries in West Africa. Recent research found that nearly 4000 vascular plants occur in Guinea, a 30% increase from previous estimates. 273 of these plant species are now assessed as threatened with global extinction. There is increasing pressure on the environment from the extractive industry and a growing population. In parallel with implementation of an Important Plant Area programme in Guinea, CAPs were developed for 20 threatened plant species. These plans elaborate conservation efforts needed first to safeguard threatened species both in situ and ex situ and then to support their recovery. We document the approach used to assemble the Species Conservation Action Plans, and we discuss the importance of having up to date field information, IUCN Red List assessments, and use of a collaborative approach. The need for these plans is increasingly important with recent calculations suggesting a third of African plants are threatened with extinction. This paper outlines initial detailed plant conservation planning in Guinea and offers a template for conservation practitioners in other tropical African countries to follow.

Natural history collections underpin our understanding of species distributions, yet some historical records remain embedded in modern avifaunal checklists despite limited documentation and no independent verification. One such case concerns the Dusky Parrot Pionus fuscus in Colombia: although reported from specimens collected by Melbourne A. Carriker Jr. in 1942 in the Serrania de Perija, the species has not been observed in the country for nearly eight decades yet continues to be included in national checklists and conservation assessments. We reassessed the validity of this record by applying a multi-evidence framework integrating historic archival reconstruction, specimen-based morphological comparisons, climatic niche analyses, biogeographic limit assessment and contemporary survey-effort data. Historical documentation and morphological evidence based on high-resolution specimen images and associated curatorial records demonstrate that the Carriker specimens correspond to Pionus chalcopterus, not P. fuscus. Climatic niche analyses reveal minimal environmental overlap between P. chalcopterus and P. fuscus, and place the Perija locality within the climatic niche of P. chalcopterus, while regional biogeography and extensive modern birdwatching coverage provide no support for the occurrence of P. fuscus in Perija. Together, these concordant lines of evidence demonstrate that P. fuscus does not occur in Colombia. Our findings support its removal from national bird lists and conservation assessments and highlight how integrated, multi-evidence reassessments of historical records strengthen ornithological baselines, improve biogeographic inference and ensure that conservation priorities rest on verifiable evidence.

AimsNew Guinea is one of the worlds most floristically diverse islands, but its plant collection records are very uneven. We aim to identify which areas have the highest diversity of vascular plant genera, and which areas have the highest deforestation risk. Combining these findings we highlight priority regions for research and conservation. LocationNew Guinea Time period1900-2021 Taxa studiedTracheophyta (Vascular plants) MethodsWe obtained collection records and environmental variables and prepared a cost-distance map of New Guinea to indicate accessibility. We modelled the joint distribution of 1,156 genera with the HO_SCPLOWMSCC_SCPLOW package in R to predict biodiversity across space, accounting for collection bias. We combined these results with a genus-level phylogenetic tree to predict phylogenetic endemism. We then modelled deforestation risk with the R-INLA package, using forest clearance data and variables including cost-distance. We compared actual and predicted deforestation, and made predictions for 2021-25. Finally, we developed a combined measure of predicted biodiversity plus deforestation risk. ResultsA mean Spearmans rank correlation of 0.462 was obtained on five-fold cross-validation of the genus biodiversity model; bias-correction shifted the predicted distribution of biodiversity towards western New Guinea, but had less effect on estimates of phylogenetic endemism. Predictions of relative deforestation probability were accurate over 5 and 10 years (Spearman values 0.66 and 0.71). We postulate a deforestation debt to explain the persistence in accuracy. Over time, the areas which survive early deforestation gradually become more rewarding targets and the proportion of at-risk forest lost to clearance accumulates. Main conclusionsWe present a method for rapid assessment of biodiversity and deforestation risk in data-deficient tropical forest regions. Areas of high predicted biodiversity such as the Merauke and Jayapura lowlands are at high near-term risk from commercial deforestation, requiring urgent interventions to record and preserve threatened species.

Identifying potential Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) using species occurrence records is crucial for integrating hyperdiverse taxa, such as insects, into the KBA network. To ensure the KBA network supports effective conservation decision-making, established KBAs need to be reassessed every 8 to 12 years. Realistically, reassessments for very high numbers of species will be based also on opportunistic occurrence points. However, how changes in species distribution data availability and completeness in different time periods influence the spatial stability of potential KBAs over time has not been investigated in any taxa yet. We performed potential KBA assessments for 28 species and subspecies of bumblebees in Italy using an expert-validated dataset of distribution data collected between 1990 and 2023, using 10-year cumulative and progressive time series. Our findings reveal that KBA scoping for species with distributional knowledge gaps does not ensure stability and reliability over time. Potential KBA turnover percentages between different time periods can be high ([~=]133%). While only seven species/subspecies could trigger potential KBAs, their turnover percentage ranged between 28.5% and 50%. We highlight the need for standardized and strategic monitoring of established KBAs and species distributions between reassessments. We also discuss strategies to optimize monitoring plans under resource constraints.

The Madrean Sky Island Archipelago is a system of 54 mountains with isolated woodland habitat above 1,600 meters, primarily in the Sonoran Desert. These mountains harbor a wide variety of native small mammals spanning 11 families of bats, rodents and shrews. Improved understanding of Madrean Sky Island biodiversity will potentially advance studies of biogeography, phylogenetic relationships, host-symbiont interactions, and processes of community assembly in this ecoregion. However, which species are found in each sky island and how their populations are genetically related remain open questions. To establish the current knowledge baseline, we used voucher specimen geocoordinates and elevations to summarize the extent and timing of past collecting efforts for small mammals in woodland habitats across the Madrean Sky Islands. In total, 97 species of small mammals (39 bats, 54 rodents, 4 shrews) from 9,541 specimens were collected from 1884 to 2023. Of these historical specimens, 79% come from five sky islands (Chiricahuas, Pinalenos, Huachucas, Animas, and Santa Catalinas) and only 25 sky islands in the Madrean system have any recorded specimens. Mexicos 25 sky islands are mostly unsampled (only the San Luis, Sierra dos Ajos, and Sierra La Mariquita have any specimens) and several of Arizonas larger sky islands have fewer than 40 specimens (Galiuros, Canelo Hills, Santa Teresas, Mules, and Dragoons). A large majority of small mammal specimens (87%) were collected prior to 1980, meaning they were collected without DNA/RNA preservation as a priority. This distributional summary is the current basis for all derived biodiversity knowledge of Madrean Sky Island small mammals, illustrating clear gaps regarding most species of woodland-dwelling bats, rodents, and shrews. This work lays the foundation for future fieldwork and voucher specimen preservation in the Madrean Sky Islands, especially from undersampled mountains where biodiversity assumptions are unconfirmed.

Forest fragmentation can have detrimental effects on plant populations, reducing population sizes and depleting genetic diversity, as a consequence. As a matter of urgency, it is crucial to assess the effects of forest fragmentation on genetics and ecological processes, particularly for threatened species on the brink of extinction. Here, we examined the responses of Dinizia jueirana-facao G. P. Lewis & G. S. Siqueira (Fabaceae, Caesalpinioideae) - a rare and critically endangered tree species endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest-, to forest fragmentation. Based on theoretical predictions for barochory plant species with small population sizes, we hypothesized that forest fragmentation would reduce gene flow, erode genetic diversity, and negatively impact demography. Using neutral SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) derived from ddRADSeq (double-digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing), we found that pollen dispersal occurred within short distances, with the majority of outcrossed pollination events occurring locally. Furthermore, contemporary estimates of gene dispersal distances were lower than historical ones, indicating a seasonal shift in the scale of gene flow due to recent forest fragmentation. Our results also indicated no evidence of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity. In terms of ecological process, the demographic structure of fragmented populations of D. jueirana-facao followed a reverse J-shaped size class distribution, with more than 45% of plants found in small diameter classes. While a more in-depth understanding of ecological and evolutionary processes at fine-scale is still needed to safeguard this unique plant species, our infant study plays a crucial role to help keep the evolutionary potential of D. jueirana-facao. We stress that the approach used here would be useful to guide conservation and management efforts for species on the brink of extinction.

In biodiversity hotspots, such as the Western Ghats, periodic synthesis of existing ecological research can help identify knowledge gaps and address critical threats to biodiversity. The Maharashtra part of the Konkan region, situated between the Sahyadri foothills and the west coast, with diverse tropical vegetation, harbours unique open ecosystems, such as lateritic plateaus, and supports a multitude of threatened species, including hornbills and tigers. However, the region remains relatively understudied and has not received adequate protection through state or national conservation policies and laws. The area is undergoing rapid human-driven land-use change. These activities can impact the regions biodiversity, necessitating an effort to identify knowledge gaps and critical threats. Through a combination of a literature review and focus group discussions with 44 participants from various institutions and non-governmental organisations, we synthesised existing published information on the Konkan region of Maharashtra and identified key research gaps and conservation challenges. Our review of 138 studies found that while agroforestry and human-wildlife interactions have received some research attention, the effects of climate change on the regions biodiversity remain poorly understood. Focus group discussions highlighted major threats, including land-use changes due to expanding monoculture plantations, clear-felling of forests, forest fires, environmental pollution, and rapid infrastructure development, which are leading to habitat loss and fragmentation. Some of these concerns were validated by publicly available regional data, which revealed a 30% increase in roads, a 14% expansion of cashew plantations, and associated forest loss. This synthesis offers valuable insights for government and non-governmental organisations to inform future research and conservation efforts in the region.

BackgroundMost populations of spider monkeys (Ateles) and muriquis (Brachyteles), two Neotropical primate genera, are under severe anthropogenic threats. Yet, taxon-wide population-level studies leveraging their degree of endangerment linked to their genetic diversity patterns and demographic history are lacking. To properly address this, there is a need to expand from morphological and genetic marker-based studies. ResultsWe generated high-coverage genome sequencing for 58 individuals sampled across 8 Atelidae species, in the first population-wide study of all extant spider monkey species, in the wild and captivity, alongside northern muriquis (Brachyteles hypoxanthus). Additionally, we present a high-contiguity reference genome for Ateles hybridus. Here, we observe the overall levels of genetic diversity and genetic load of the analyzed populations do not align to their IUCN endangerment category. Moreover, we show that in the wild, genetic load is overall higher compared to the captive populations analyzed. Then, we depict two main trans and cis-Andean sister clades in Ateles, and further structure and dynamics outlined by the Madeira River in the latter clade. Lastly, we find that genes in highly divergent regions between Ateles and B. hypoxanthus are involved in central nervous system development and photorreception. ConclusionsOur study shows i) the lack of concordance between the genetic diversity levels and extinction risk of these populations, suggestive of recent and strong external drivers; ii) increased genetic load in the wild in contrast to effective captive management, indicating mostly past demographic events; iii) structure and dynamics in spider monkeys that agrees with common biogeographical patterns and iv) genetic divergence between Ateles and Brachyteles potentially linked to distinct environmental light levels.

In this study, we assess how well globally threatened bird species in Latin America are currently represented within existing protected areas, and we identify conservation priority areas for the most under-protected species. We used publicly available data to map the Area of Habitat (AOH) for each of the 149 land birds in South America listed on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as either Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable (the latter only under criterion D - those with the smallest populations or ranges). We then set two minimum conservation targets for each species: first a population-based target that estimates the proportion of the AOH needed to conserve 1,000 mature individuals (or the total population if smaller) to prevent extinction; and second, an area-based target that estimates the amount of habitat needed to sustain the long-term conservation of each species. The AOH maps were then overlaid with existing protected areas to identify those species that do not yet have their minimum conservation targets met. Using this approach, we identified 10 species that require additional protection to avoid extinction, and a further 54 species that need expanded protection for sustained conservation. Fortunately, the majority of species already met their target. We also ran a prioritization analysis to identify and map the places most important for meeting the goals of the under-protected species. We found that just 661.4 km2 is needed to meet population-based targets for the ten species of greatest concern, and 16,360 km2 is needed to meet area-based targets for all under-protected species combined. These areas represent <0.1% of the regions land area and are mostly concentrated in five countries (Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Brazil). Expanding reserves to cover these areas should result in both improved conservation outcomes and Red List status for these species.

Human activities shape the structure of landscapes in different ways and hence modify animal communities depending on the type and intensity of these activities. The Montes de Maria subregion of Colombia has experienced a heavy transformation of most areas despite covering one of the last remnants of dry forest, a critically endangered ecosystem. However, the effects of this transformation have been little explored. Here, we used a multispecies occupancy model (MSOM) to understand the relative influence of three components of land-use change - deforestation (remaining habitat amount), degradation of habitat quality (habitat quality) and fragmentation (landscape configuration) on mammalian habitat use across a mosaic of tropical dry forest in Colombia. Our data suggest that the percentage of forest cover was substantially important for herbivores, and consistently showed a moderate effect on the entire community and some individual species. High variability in species-specific responses to the examined variables hindered broad taxonomic generalizations, nevertheless, we detected a moderate positive effect of forest cover in both diet specialists and generalists species, as well as in species with small home ranges. Although omnivores responses, tended to use less complex landscapes (mosaics of land uses), there was high uncertainty in this response. The lack of substantial effects on most species, and the absence of threatened species across this anthropogenic landscape, suggests that the current community is composed of species tolerant to habitat modifications, but not only diet generalist species. This is most likely the result of a long filtering process caused by land use transformation and hunting which could have caused non-sensitive species to distribute relatively homogenously across this landscape. Our results suggest that conservation strategies in the study area should focus on conserving and expanding as much forest as possible rather than only improving the quality of already existing forest patches.

Protected areas have been one of the most commonly applied conservation tools to prevent ecosystem degradation. International conservation targets have been created to incentivize widespread expansion of protected area networks, but this call might clash with expected future land use change. Here we investigated how future land use trajectories (2015-2090), representing a wide range of plausible future scenarios would impact the remaining areas of primary vegetation under different protection levels across the worlds biomes. We then highlight areas under greater risk of conflict between conservation (highly protected) and land use expansion (high projected change), and areas where these two can better co-exist (lower protection with high projected change and/or high protection with low projected change).\n\nWhile the most positive pathway of development led to the least loss of primary vegetation globally, this was not observed in all biomes. Further, we found no significant correlation between existing extent of protection and average proportion of vegetation loss. Mediterranean Forests, Woodlands & Scrub had the largest projected loss occurring in the highest protected areas. Tropical Forests in Central Africa and the Boreal Forests of North Euro-Asia and Canada emerge as the areas where most projected change occurs, and existing protection is still low. Areas in India and Southeast Asia emerge as potential areas for intervention as they have significant projected loss of primary vegetation, and considerably low protection.\n\nOur results can help inform policy and decision-makers to prevent such conflicts and support the development of management actions. These policy and management actions should target conservation in areas under expected great pressure of change with high ecological value (e.g., composed mainly by primary vegetation), but still not protected. This study also opens the discussion to the future of current protected areas and to the potential to expand the existing network of protected areas.

Climate change will cause important declines in species distributions, especially when living at high altitudes. The Critically Endangered Salamandra lanzai from SW Alps may be severely exposed to future climate change effects and its suitable climate may shrink or shift. Another Alpine salamander (S. atra) is present in the region, which in case of spatial overlap may represent a competitor for S. lanzai. It is urgent to estimate the effect of future climate change on these species and identify priority areas for conservation while accounting for competition between both species. With a Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) approach, we projected the current and future climate suitability of both salamander species. We accounted for uncertainty related to the methods (model replicates) and climate projections (data source, global circulation model and scenario) to provide a consensus map for practitioners. This map also takes into account potential competition with S. atra by penalizing the suitability scores of S. lanzai by the scores of S. atra. We predict a severe effect of climate change on both species. Most of the current habitats are projected to become largely unsuitable by 2070, regardless of the climatology and scenario. We identified important spatial disagreements between projections based on different data sources, mostly due to precipitation projections and daily temperature variation. This highlights the need to account for multiple climatologies in mountainous environments. Both species habitats are highly fragmented, which is expected to prevent distributional shifts through natural dispersion. We suggest to explore the possibility of translocation for the most threatened populations and simultaneously develop captive breeding programs. Biotic interactions are rarely accounted for in SDMs, and we encourage the documentation of species with similar ecological requirements to improve the relevance of SDMs for future conservation planning.